INTRODUCTION

Are the Watchmen looking for Icebergs?
Most of us have had the opportunity, at one time or another, of screening one of Hollywood's biggest block buster films. The story centers around an ill-fated luxury ocean liner which took a turn for the worst when the night watchmen failed to report an iceberg that was dead ahead in the North Atlantic. At the moment they discovered the oncoming slab of ice, it was just too late. Because of their incompetence, coupled with a slightly foggy view, their mistake resulted in the bone crushing sound of warping bulkheads smashing together as the wrenching screams of dying passengers replaced the moaning groans of the sinking ship. The surprise to all of this was everyone believed it could never be sunk. The Titanic is a vivid memento of arrogance steeped in pride numbed through blindness. . . and, trusting in the watchmen, their failing to see ahead at the right time. In fact, if you think about it, the entire ordeal could have been avoided had the night watchmen performed their duties as expected. But then you remember it was a little difficult to see in those conditions anyway. Even a light fog will do that, especially if induced by to much drinking. We can liken this tragedy to life's adventures. We are all aboard a huge ship called the USS America. We are freely sailing away into the future believing that the ship won't sink. As the hours marches on the windows become a little foggy. This clouds our view, making time and distance faintly distorted. Is it wise to proceed with caution? Maybe, but some simply don't care since the future is so uncertain, why does it matter? So we continue to track uncharted waters with no clear vision in sight. "Are the night-watchmen doing their duty?", many of the more concerned ask silently. As the trip continues the water far below is a little murky making it that much more difficult to navigate as we press forward. What lies beneath? This new variable increases the already difficult problem of not knowing what's out there on the surface. Some of us begin to feel uneasy, but we look around and notice that everybody else seems to remain at ease, at least that's their appearance, as most of them go back to whatever they were doing in the hope of making the trip more enjoyable. "After all," some say concerning the journey, "we only get one shot at it!" On this ship, though, there are a few who are more insightful and they decide to don life jackets while taking note as to the location of the life boats - just in case - better to be safe than sorry. And so it is with mankind. This dim-witted analogy illustrates, I believe, where America presently finds itself as a nation, poor allegories notwithstanding. There is this underlying feeling of the USS America pressing forward, and, like the illfated ship of the North Atlantic, we are traveling perhaps a little too fast. At this speed, we find that we are in deep, uncharted waters of a smothering national debt. Combine this with the potential of an electric power grid that is on the verge of collapse; add that to the equation of foreign oil controlled by those that hate us to the point they might cut off the energy supply that feeds our staggering economy. This threat is even more explosive when you consider that these variables are not only endangering our nation's economic well being, but could have global ramifications. Add this to the fact that we recently witnessed a warning shot on 9/11/2001 from a very real terrorist group who has vowed to destroy us at all cost - but not to worry, they are in cohorts with our Far Eastern friends who have reassured us our new "partners" will aid in stopping that terrorist threat!

Be that as it may, the navigator of the ship gives us comfort with the knowledge that the Captain's cabinet of experienced night-watchmen is, indeed, guiding the helm. But can they see the other problems ahead as the ship sails onward? Kids in school are killing one another for a pair of designer shoes. We have the issue of babies' having babies. An epidemic of AIDS is decimating portions of the world's population. Natural disasters have increased all over the world. Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods are taking their toll that is stretching the resources of even the wealthier nations. Yet, we still put faith in the Captain and their able crew who are guiding us through the deep waters of uncertain economic times which they feel they can charter safely. And since they are so confident, other variables not apparent to them seem to matter little. And the U.S.S. America sails on. Other night- watchman persuade the Captain that any sharks, in the form of enemies bent on doing us harm, are lurking in the water far below and, they say, can be handled with little or no threat to the passengers. These minor security conditions make it appear that we are nearly invincible, thanks to the night watchmen advising the Captain at the helm and his echoed words of consolation to the slumbering passengers below. After all - we're on the unsinkable ship. "Yes, all is well," we say to ourselves as our collective heads hit the pillows for a safe night sleep on the USS America. But then something happens! Just as we fade into the twilight of a secure slumber, we are jolted by a sudden shudder sensed throughout the ship. At first, it felt like someone shook the bed. Then, as we abruptly awaken out of the bewilderment of sleep, we wonder what has happened. Was it an enormous explosion of some kind breaching the hull? Maybe it was a torpedo from one of those unseen enemies we were told is no-longer a threat? Was it the first sign of a massive underwater earthquake? Why didn't anyone warn us of that? How could the Captain anticipate such an event? Maybe it was an iceberg! Where are the night-watchmen now? All of these questions enter our collective minds at once. It was so unexpected! Panic begins to unfold as the survivors hustle their way to the top of the deck. Unfortunately for some it was already too late, the water has over taken them. We can hear the gasping of their last faint cries! Why weren't we warned? And why are we just now being told there are not nearly enough life boats for all the surviving passengers? The situation begins to deteriorate. People loathe sudden, unexpected changes. The end result is usually one of reaction or overreaction leading to violence . . . or worse. The faint cries turn into sobs which are followed by the loud wailing.

This is what ensues when one is on a ship that everyone believed would not sink. These Books are About the Possibility of What Could Happen History is replete with episodes of unexpected, violent change due to the often fatal error of not looking ahead at the direction a civilization was going. Ironically, it is this type of ordeal that makes analyzing them so interesting. The trick is to learn from those past blunders so we can apply the wisdom from those mistakes in order to avoid them in the future. Human nature often dictates that if there are any surprises on a mass scale, such as a sudden earthquake or flood, then panic overtakes logic and people react in such a way that there is more damage from the reaction then, in some cases, from the event that originally triggered it. We see that in mass rioting even if the episode that spawned it was based on a falsehood!

On the other side of the coin, those that anticipated the ordeal have cooler heads during times of trouble. This is especially true if those people are prepared for any surprises. A lot of suffering could be avoided if more of us had just realized the possibility of an oncoming iceberg. But, in the hope of delaying the inevitable, the majority riding the ship who awakened from the depths of apathy will most likely not see ahead in time because of several obvious variables:

One is the genuine desire of most people to want to see what really is ahead: The problem is, many don't have this desire. They lack the wisdom to regard the necessity of it. And then there are those who just don't care. If they're not interested in their own future, what good is it going to do to try and warn them? In this day and age of narcissism, some people feel it more and more irrelevant to discuss America's destiny. Their needs are already met, "so why bother" is their argument?

Pride is another reason for not seeing beyond your nose: I have found the more haughty people become, the less they are interested in the collective future of the nation that gave them the freedom and opportunity to succeed. If that seems like a contradiction, it is. It is because those who have this attitude make no effort to protecting the very nest they cherish by simple looking ahead so they can avoid danger that might threaten the proverbial golden egg.

Overwhelming guilt caused by overindulgence is another reason that the USS America is in trouble. Guilt because they feel they can't stop what they know is wrong. They won't stop because studies have shown that Americans are the most preoccupied, addictive, self-absorbed people on earth, and we still can't get enough! What makes it so horrifying is the fact that our enemies know this, and, as you will see in volume II of this study, they are taking full advantage of this mind-set. History has shown that a self-consumed, sleepy and apathetic people are easy targets for those who hunger to rule us all. The fact is, we aren't any different from those who where once moaning their last dying moments which are now smothered in the dust of the past. But of course there are always the sceptics, we find out later and too late, who don't look to grasping from history's mistakes. They put their faith in other things. The sceptics are those who remind us that we have technology coupled with an economic powerhouse filled with universities staffed with the best minds of our times. They will save us. Tell that to the Assyrians who had the best mechanized army with the most advance chariots, the Greeks and their brilliant mathematics or the Persians who had brought the world of trade to their doorstep. All collapsed under their own moral corruption. So go ahead, continue to shoot, snort and smoke your way into oblivion, because that is what we will get if we continue taking this course in the murky waters of a smothering national debt, rampant apathy coupled with self-indulgence supported by mindless pride. The past historical cycles have shown this to be true. Why are we any different? I hope to answer some of those questions in this study.

In fact that is what this study is about: Where we are in history. These two volumes will take you through some of the more interesting research material done by experts in various fields that reflect the theme of these books. It crosses many disciplines and covers a wide variety of sources which can be found in any good library. I also utilize some of the more obscure areas of documentation but I kept those at a minimum so you can check the footnotes yourself if you so choose. This is especially true as it pertains to the information in Volume I. In this first book, you will discover that it is rather eclectic, as reflected by many of the experts I quote, giving you a wide variety of thought-provoking insights if you're a little persistent. My hope is that this diversity blends together into a coherent whole based upon some interesting themes. Some are scientific concepts that are found in scattered areas throughout each chapter. Don't be intimidated by this; anyone with a basic high school knowledge of simple science will get it. Nevertheless, I have occasionally repeated myself in different ways in order to make sure that the elementary abstractions are clear. So for the more advanced student, please bare with me. For the rest of you, my efforts are designed to educate through the induction of some new ideas that will most likely ring true with some of you . . . the rest, I hope, will have a good time just sitting back and absorbing it all. If many feel that this makes for an easy read, I have accomplished part of my goal. My more subtle efforts at education are designed to expose some of the falsehoods presently tossed around as fact. This leads me to the next subject.

One of the more surprising ideas explored through this work is the influence of solar and other cosmic variables as they relate to cycles of history. These volumes, though, are not based nor are they about astrology, as I will explain to you as you read on.

The Fallacy of Astrology
The first volume is the result of my own experience as a surfer in Southern California. As a young junior high school boy I would be board or body-surfing the beaches of Santa Barbara through Ventura to Malibu. This offered me the opportunity of studying the tides up close and personal. It always fascinated me whenever the ocean would shift from one high tide to another in such a short extent of time. I learned that the Moon affected this change over the length of a day and that it had a direct bearing on the conditions of the surf, in conjunction with the wind, for everyone looking for the perfect wave. This encouraged me to study further the lunar influences has on the Earth. As my knowledge expanded on these matters, I found myself exploring the inevitable relationship of the Sun and the Moon and the changes these celestial bodies have on our planet. Make no mistake about it, the Sun and Moon create tides that affect more than just the oceans. This study will show that these cosmic variables also have a profound influence on plant life, animals and even some of mankind's own behavior which can be modified by our nearest celestial neighbors. But don't jump to any conclusions from that, this is not astrology.

We are not controlled by cosmic forces. In fact, the influence of planets to human behavior is actually more of a "reaction" to environmental change than to a "control" of human conduct imposed by celestial constraints. It is my belief that we still have our God-given free agency. The idea that the planets combined with the Moon and Sun mold our future and, therefore, there is nothing we can do about it, fly in the face of everything taught by the precepts and morals of the ancient Christians and Jews. Fortunately the Founding Fathers didn't swallow the false doctrines of an all powerful galactic force controlling us but instead embraced and encapsulated the very substance of those golden nuggets of wisdom from the Old and New Testament. They concluded that a benevolent Creator controls nature and that he uses these natural laws for the benefit of mankind's progression, all within the frame work of our God given free-agency. The Founders then spent the better part of their adult life distilling this knowledge into a compact package for all Americans, and the entire world if they would only listen, to treasure. The result of their hard work, and in some cases the shedding of their own blood, is our Constitution and the Declaration of Independence. They rejected outright the idea of any outside influences of nature, including the position of the planets devoid of a supreme being, "controlling" our destiny simply because it was based on a falsehood. That misrepresentation of cosmic control known as astrology will be exposed in this book. So if you are a believer in the ancient Babylonian method of star gazing as it relates to your destiny, this study is not for you.

What this First Volume Encapsulates
I wrote this book so each "section" encompasses several chapters. Each section can be read independent of the previous section. But you are better off reading them all. Many of you will want to know about cycles in nature and how they can affect us. This can get slightly technical but it is not hard to understand. If you're not interested in those questions, you can skip some of the more technical sections and get right to the "meat" of the subject which is: when will the most likely time of a major famine, plague, and great earthquake strike next in America? I left other countries out of the equation (in most cases) since all the world is hedged on our Nation's economic and sociologic successes and failures. We are trend setters for the world. Whatever happens to us economically/culturally/sociologically also affects nearly everyone else globally. Which leads me to the next point.

These are not books of prophecies in the Biblical tenor (although the events predicted are Biblical in proportion), but they are based on the most likely time that these occurrences could hit us. This is a study of future probabilities based on events from the past. If you want to know when these disasters could happen, then you need to read the chapters in this Volume and Volume II (to be published in summer of 2003).

I Do Not Take These Subjects Lightly
I realize that I am taking a terrible social risk of rejection in writing a book like this, for, after reading it, many will look at me as some kind of fanatic or paranoid with an undefined alternative or predilection. If you know me, you will realize that social acceptance by the "in crowd" is the least of my concerns. Others will simply reject what has been written in these volumes out of hand. But there will be those few who will genuinely see the light once they ponder the implications of what I am trying to convey. If I can get to those few, then I have done my job. It is to you that I dedicate this series of books.

The last several years have afforded me the opportunity of talking with people from various walks of life. When the subject of cycles inevitably raises its pointed little head, they invariably ask me when these events are about to unfold. I tell them that I don't know, but I do know the most likely time they could happen, and that this is my best guess. I hope I am wrong about all of them. The one thing that they remember from our conversation, though, is that we don't have to suffer the full brunt of these events if we are aware of their coming and stay sufficiently prepared.While many of these occurrences can't be prevented - much of their impact and their effects can be blunted if we anticipate the worst, and like the ocean liner, we can ride it out if we know the iceberg is coming and make every attempt to avoid it. If it can't be dodged in time, then we should prepare for the worst with more life rafts than needed while always hoping, and praying, for the best. That is the real message of this book. If you know there is an iceberg on the horizon, it's best to find that vest and life boat now, before the water starts rising and there is no hope. The warnings in this book are about that. I ask that you at least consider this as you read, contemplate and examine my conclusions. Whatever the outcome, I take full responsibility for them and give the credit to those more enlightened than myself.

To the rest of you - you need to ask where we are in relation to events of the past. And, just as important, where we are going as a nation. To those guiding the helm, we need to ask them if they can see the many icebergs ahead. Are we going to follow nature and be dragged through history in her predicable course? Or is it better to learn from the past and then apply that wisdom so the USS America continues to sail intact? That way we can, together, take hold of the helm guiding it in the right direction - so we can collectively advocate our own destiny.

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